Abstract
The global temperature is rising rapidly today which has caused an extensive ice melt, so the study of predicting rising sea level because of ice melt in North Polar is essential. Our study will try to predict the impact to Florida from melting ice in North Polar .Our studies have three steps:
? Predict the temperature: We did the prediction by Neural network and give the
change of temperature in 50 years, based on a large amount of data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC);
? Model the mass of ice melting and the sea level: The sea level model is mainly
based on the principle of Thermodynamics and iteration. The results demonstrate that the sea level will rise by 10.8 cm totally in 50 years. Prediction of our model can be proved to be credible by consulting the data from IPCC. We introduce a correct term to modify our model. We can change to simulate sea level rise in different temperature condition.
? Analyze the impacts to Florida: We model the erosion of Florida’s shoreline to
make it clear that when sea level rise to a certain extent that Florida will face many serious problems such as flooding, destruction of biodiversity, (Health Care), Loss of agriculture production (salinization of soil) and so on over the next 50 years.. We find the 17 cities or areas and 15 airports which are severely impacted by the rise of sea level.
(Based on our results,) Without attaching more importance to solving the problem, shoreline of several coastal cities like Miami will be eroded seriously, and the lowest placeKey West will be disappeared. It will cost a huge financial loss, so further protection should be put into place.
1
Content
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 3
Background .............................................................................................................................. 3 Our work .................................................................................................................................. 3
Study object: Ice cap in Greenland ................................................................................ 3 Modeling the sea level ..................................................................................................... 3 Analysis of Florida .......................................................................................................... 3
Assumption ...................................................................................................................................... 4 Model Ⅰ:Temperature Prediction ............................................................................................... 4
Grey Prediction Model: .......................................................................................................... 4 Neural Network prediction Model: ....................................................................................... 4 Model Ⅱ:Melting ice and the rise of sea level............................................................................. 5
Model the rise of sea level ....................................................................................................... 5 Heat from rise of temperature: .............................................................................................. 6 Mass of melting ice: ................................................................................................................. 6 Design of Algorithms: ............................................................................................................. 7 Model Results: Sea level will elevate by 10 centimeters in 50 years ................................... 8 Validation of our model: ......................................................................................................... 9 Model Ⅲ Analysis: The effects towards Florida ...................................................................... 10
Major Cities Analysis ............................................................................................................ 11
Miami ............................................................................................................................. 11 Tampa ............................................................................................................................. 11 Cape Coral ..................................................................................................................... 12 Key West ........................................................................................................................ 12 Other Impacts in Florida: .................................................................................................... 12 Recommendations to coastal Florida: ......................................................................................... 13 Judgments ...................................................................................................................................... 13
Strengths ................................................................................................................................ 13 Weaknesses ............................................................................................................................ 13 Reference........................................................................................................................................ 14
2
Introduction
Background
Global Warming and sea level rise
“Air temperatures at the top of the world continue to rise twice as fast as temperatures in lower latitudes, causing significant ice melt on land and sea” [Fears, December 17, 2014]. One of the serious consequences is that sea level will rise. Global average sea-level rose at an average rate of about 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8] mm per year from 1993 to 2003[IPCC]. This information suggests that from 1993 to 2003 the sea-level rise by 3.1cm totally.
Our work
The question requires us to predict the next 50 years’ condition of ice melting and analyze the effects on the Florida, especially some big cities. So we can separate this question into two parts:
? ?
How much and how fast will the see level rise within 50 years?
What are the effects on the Florida because of the rise of sea level, especially some big cities?
Study object: Ice cap in Greenland
Arctic mainly consists of Greenland, which occupies about 9% glaciers all over the world. Melting in Arctic is mainly due to Greenland, melting of floating ice can be ignored. So we can consider Greenland as study object. Modeling the sea level
We develop a model for sea-level rise as the function of time. This model can predict sea-level rise in future. Analysis of Florida
After having calculated the increased sea level within next 50 years, we analyze the impact to the Florida.
?
Rising sea level can seriously threaten the development of cities. It has been
3
threatening some islands and coastal cities. Over the next 18 years, about two thirds among 544 American towns will be twice as likely to face floods [Huang]. More frequency hurricane will happen.
? ?
Sea water will corrode seacoast.
A large quantity of drinking water will be polluted.
Assumption
? ? ?
Sea level rise is primarily due to the melting of ice cap in Green Land. We ignore the other floating ice in the Northern Polar.
The increment of sea water from melting will flow over the oceans uniformlySalt in the ice will not affects the procedure of melting.
Model Ⅰ:Temperature Prediction
Grey Prediction Model:
The weakness of the grey prediction is that the result is increasing all the time. In other words, it cannot show the changes in detail.
Neural Network prediction Model:
4
Model Ⅱ:Melting ice and the rise of sea level
Model the rise of sea level
The main reason of the sea level rising is the melting of ice cap and the mass of melting ice is equal to the mass of sea water generated from melting. So, based on several physical principles, we model the rise of sea level by calculating the mass of melting ice. We assume that the increment of sea water from melting will flow over the world uniformly, which means the melting ice will contribute to the rise of sea level, divided by the area of the ocean.
The increment of sea water from melting ice The total volume of melting ice cap
The total volume of water generated from melting The sea level rise
The overall ocean area: 361745300km2, this is 71 percent of earth’s total surface area (Wikipedia).
5
Predict the temperature-数模美赛08年A题
