Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 2019-2020Share ofCountry and region 1/October - MarchFY 2019VALUEAsia East Asia Japan China Hong Kong Taiwan South Korea Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Thailand Vietnam South Asia IndiaWestern Hemisphere North America Canada Mexico Caribbean Dominican Republic Central America South America Brazil Colombia Peru VenezuelaEurope/Eurasia European Union-27+UK 2/ Other Europe 3/ FSU-12 4/ RussiaMiddle East Turkey Saudi ArabiaAfrica North Africa Egypt Sub-Saharan Africa NigeriaOceaniaTransshipments via Canada 5/27.44618.3296.2504.0392.0601.8674.1096.9711.4471.4190.5581.0611.9222.1460.76827.69819.65810.2339.4241.8460.6952.1464.0490.2891.4170.6410.1058.2387.5760.2610.4010.1393.2030.5350.7372.1421.2310.9010.9110.2180.1730.00030.44420.7055.8167.9621.3691.7973.7576.9971.4691.4550.5940.9841.8302.7410.86427.67720.16210.2699.8941.8380.7082.2593.4170.3071.5590.4250.1576.8356.3800.2000.2550.0922.9850.6780.6872.2281.3770.9410.8510.2270.1820.00054.74637.16912.13610.0893.5133.6087.81213.5662.8922.8791.1461.8853.5934.0111.79555.02139.89520.89918.9963.6771.2974.3847.0640.5832.6781.0330.17413.78712.6030.5720.6110.2195.7731.1821.3164.0802.1241.4771.9560.5522.1380.00040.427.49.07.42.62.75.810.02.12.10.81.42.73.01.340.629.415.414.02.71.03.25.20.42.00.80.110.29.30.40.50.24.30.91.03.01.61.11.40.41.60.058.640.612.014.03.03.68.013.62.93.01.31.83.74.41.855.041.321.519.83.61.34.06.10.62.70.80.213.412.30.60.50.25.91.51.34.42.41.52.00.72.10.056.638.812.013.02.53.67.713.42.93.01.31.83.54.41.855.141.021.219.83.61.34.46.10.62.70.80.212.611.50.60.50.25.81.51.34.32.41.51.90.62.10.0FY 2020 -- $ Billion --Fiscal yearFY 20192019totalPercentForecastFiscal year 2020Feb.-- $ Billion --May Total69.76771.228135.544100.0139.5136.5Total may not add due to rounding. 1/ Projections are based primarily on trend or recent average growth analysis.2/ 28 member nations of the European Union (EU) including the United Kingdom (UK), which will remain in the EUCustoms Union during the transition period that is scheduled to end December 31, 2020, but may be extended.3/ Major countries include Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and former Yugoslav states.4/ The 15 Republics of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) minus the 3 Baltic Republics.5/ Transshipments through Canada have not been allocated to final destination, but are included in the total.Source: USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service analysis and forecasts using data fromU.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
Import Products
Agricultural imports in FY 2020 are forecast to decrease to $130.2 billion, $2.3 billion less than the February forecast and $700 million less than the total value of imports in FY 2019. The expected decreases in imports of horticultural products and oilseeds outweigh the expected increase in imports of sugar and tropical products from the February forecast.
FY 2020 horticultural product imports, at $64.4 billion, are expected to be $1.9 billion less than the February forecast, and about $1.8 billion below the FY 2019 total. The beer import forecast is reduced by $700 million as a result of Mexican breweries shutting down production during the pandemic. The forecast for wine imports is reduced $400 million from the previous forecast as a result of reduced demand as consumers shift from dining out to staying at home during the pandemic. The forecasts for imports of fresh fruit and vegetables are reduced by $500 million and $200 million, respectively, as these perishable products are vulnerable to spoilage when there are delays in the supply chain, which are expected due to precautionary steps having been added to the production and transportation processes and reductions in the availability of labor. Imports of fruit juices are forecast to be $1.9 billion in FY 2020, a $200 million reduction from the February forecast, and about $300 million less than FY 2019 due to reduced import volumes.
U.S. imports of sugar and tropical products are forecast to reach $23.5 billion in FY 2020, a $100 million upward adjustment from the previous forecast and $400 million above FY 2019. Imports of sweeteners and products are forecast at $4.9 billion, representing a $100 million increase from the previous forecast, because of continued increases in quantities imported of products such as confections.
The FY 2020 livestock, dairy, and poultry import forecast remains unchanged from the February forecast at $17.6 billion. The forecast for beef and veal imports is increased by $300 million resulting from higher unit values for those products. The dairy product import forecast is increased by $100 million compared with the previous forecast due to increased import volumes in the second quarter of the fiscal year. Projected pork imports are decreased by $100 million compared to the previous forecast as a result of decreased demand. Reductions in unit value contribute to a $200 million decrease in the forecast for live cattle and calf imports.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
The import forecast for oilseeds and oilseed product is reduced by $400 million from the previous forecast to $9.1 billion, due to decreases in the volumes of vegetable oils imported compared with FY 2019. The forecast for total grain and feed imports for FY 2020 is expected to remain unchanged.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value and volume by commodity, 2019-2020ForecastCommodityVALUE---Billion dollars ---Livestock, dairy, and poultry Livestock and meats Cattle and calves Swine Beef and veal Pork Dairy products CheeseGrains and feed Grain productsOilseeds and products Vegetable oilsHorticulture products Fruits, fresh Fruits, processed Fruit juices Nuts, whole and processed Vegetables, fresh Vegetables, processed Wine Malt beer Essential oils Cut flowers and nursery stockSugar and tropical products Sweeteners and products Confections Cocoa and products Coffee and products Rubber, naturalOther imports 1/Total agricultural importsVOLUME---Million metric tons---Wine 2/Malt beer 2/Fruit juices 2/Cattle and calves 3/Swine 3/Beef and vealPorkFruits, freshFruits, processedVegetables, freshVegetables, processedVegetable oilsCocoa and productsCoffee and products0.654 1.906 2.643 1.138 2.625 0.477 0.222 6.136 0.942 4.451 2.054 2.415 0.699 0.848 1.3051.9601.1271.1132.6370.3280.1016.1950.9294.5672.1302.6200.4420.4291.3254.2154.8332.0315.0811.0200.42112.5191.8978.0254.1244.9011.3811.7871.44.35.12.15.01.00.413.02.08.14.25.31.41.71.33.84.62.15.01.00.412.62.07.94.25.01.41.78.700 6.576 0.950 0.156 2.675 0.802 1.721 0.659 6.689 4.639 4.405 2.784 33.215 7.216 2.895 1.167 1.648 5.009 2.714 3.170 2.447 2.017 1.112 11.208 2.253 0.928 2.385 2.928 0.730 0.917 65.133 9.0516.8540.9620.1533.0500.7281.8110.6336.9234.7944.4762.77334.0817.7362.7060.9541.4965.4282.8423.2562.6171.9511.13111.2522.3880.9672.5802.8640.7130.85566.63817.78913.2811.7500.3125.7981.5613.6951.34813.3759.3788.7965.54666.19213.9575.7492.1933.1418.9325.4296.5915.5074.1992.17523.0924.5391.9244.8086.1621.5131.744130.94317.613.21.80.35.81.53.61.313.99.79.56.466.315.35.92.13.38.55.56.55.84.12.123.44.81.84.96.11.51.7132.517.613.11.60.36.11.43.71.313.99.79.16.064.414.85.91.93.38.35.56.15.14.12.123.54.91.94.96.11.51.7130.2October - MarchFY2019FY2020Fiscal year2019Fiscal year 2020Feb.MayTotals may not add due to rounding.1/ Largely tobacco and planting seeds. 2/ Billion liters. 3/ Million head.Source: USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service analysis and forecasts using data from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
Regional Imports
Outlook for FY 2020
The FY 2020 forecast of agricultural imports currently stands at $130.2 billion, $2.3 billion less than the February forecast and $700 million less than the total value of imports in FY 2019. The expected decreases in imports from the Americas and Europe outweigh the expected increase in imports from Oceania from the February forecast. Western Hemisphere
The forecast regional imports from the Western Hemisphere is decreased $2.1 billion from the previous forecast. Mexico’s projected sales total is decreased by $1.3 billion from the February forecast to $27.0 billion as slowing imports of beer, fresh produce, and juice, combined with a depreciating currency, are expected to outweigh potential increases in imports of sugar and tropical products. The projected value of U.S. agricultural imports from Canada is lowered by $300 million to $22.9 billion, as downward adjustments to U.S. imports of cattle and calves and oilseed products outweigh upward adjustments of dairy products.
Imports from Central and South America are forecast down $200 million and $300 million respectively from the previous forecast to $5.4 billion and $14.4 billion respectively. Imports from Costa Rica, Guatemala, Chile, and Peru are each expected to be $100 million less than was forecast for FY 2020 in February due to expected disruptions to labor supply and supply chain logistics impacting fresh fruit trade mentioned previously in this report. Imports from Brazil are expected to be $100 million less than the previous forecast largely due to reductions in fruit juice imports. Oceania
U.S. imports from Oceania are expected to rise $300 million in FY 2020. Projected imports from Australia are increased by $300 million due to increases in the projected unit value of beef and other meat products. Europe
Forecast imports from the EU for FY 2020 are adjusted downward by $500 million from the February forecast to $24.4 billion. This reflects expected reductions in the supply of wine due to reduced demand resulting from the pandemic and reduced imports of pork and oilseed products.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
美国农业贸易展望2020年05月
