美国农业贸易展望2020年05月

Situation and Outlook Report

Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service Situation and Outlook Report AES-112 | May 29, 2020 Next release is August 26, 2020

Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

Bart Kenner, coordinator Hui Jiang, coordinator

FY 2020 U.S. Agricultural Exports Forecast at $136.5 Billion; Imports at $130.2 Billion

The COVID-19 outbreak has created a shock to world economies that will cause an unusually high level of uncertainty for the foreseeable future. U.S. agricultural exports in Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 are projected at $136.5 billion, down $3.0 billion from the February forecast, primarily due to reductions in bulk commodities including soybeans, cotton, corn, and wheat. Projections for soybean exports are reduced $1.9 billion from the previous estimate to $16.5 billion for FY 2020 due in part to increasingly competitive Brazilian exports. Cotton exports are forecast down $1.0 billion on lower volumes and unit values as the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced foreign demand. Corn exports are projected at $8.0 billion, down $500 million on lower unit values, which are pressured by ample exportable supplies and weak domestic use for fuel ethanol. The forecast for wheat exports is down $300 million to $6.1 billion, as larger global supplies and uncompetitive U.S. pricing reduce prospective volume. Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are unchanged from the February projection of $32.4 billion, as stronger demand for pork and dairy products offsets a decline for beef and poultry products. The forecast for horticultural exports is unchanged at $35.5 billion.

U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2020 are projected at $130.2 billion, down $2.3 billion from the February forecast. This decline is primarily driven by expected decreases in imports of horticultural products such as beer, fresh fruit, and fresh vegetables.

Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board The forecasts in this report are based on policies in effect at the time of the May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) release.

Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years 2014-20, year ending September 30Forecast fiscal year*Item2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Feb.Billion dollarsExportsImportsBalance152.3 109.3 43.1 139.8 114.2 25.5 129.6 113.0 16.6 140.2 119.1 21.1 143.4 127.5 15.9 135.5 130.9 4.6 139.5 132.5 7.0 May136.5 130.2 6.3 *Reflects forecasts in the May 12, 2020, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.Source: USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service analysis and forecasts using data fromU.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service

Economic Outlook

COVID-19 Expected to Stifle Trade and Growth in FY 2020

The global health crisis is damaging the ability of individuals and firms to produce goods and services while simultaneously changing the consumption behavior of consumers and businesses across the globe. As a result of this global tragedy, real per capita world gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to decline by 5.5 percent in FY 2020 relative to the prior year.

The economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will vary immensely across individuals, industries, and countries, as public and private responses will determine its full impact. The diversified U.S. economy will help to mitigate the economic downturn facing many businesses; however, the economy’s reliance on consumer spending will be a critical issue going forward. The U.S. consumer is a driving factor in the economy, and the effects of negative income shocks and the resulting shifts in spending patterns will have ripple effects through the economy. Real per capita GDP growth for the United States for FY 2020 is adjusted down from the February forecast of 1.1 percent to -7.1 percent. The adjusted forecast amounts to a reduction in economic activity of $1.8 trillion during FY 2020.

The sharp decline in oil prices, coupled with the economic shock from the virus, will cause many economies to contract from the prior year. The Canadian and Australian economies rely heavily on exports of resource products that include oil and gas and are forecast to have per capita GDP growth rates of -8.8 percent and -7.3 percent, respectively, in FY 2020. Mexico, whose economy relies strongly on trade with the United States, is forecast to have a -9.6 percent GDP per capita growth in FY 2020.

The real GDP per capita growth rate in FY 2020 for the Euro Zone was adjusted down from the February forecast of 0.8 percent to -8.5 percent. The size of the contraction in European countries’ economies will vary, with France, Italy, and Spain among the hardest-hit economies and the German economy faring better. As is the case in the United States, European economies depend heavily on consumer spending, including tourism, a sector that has been particularly affected by the pandemic.

As the first country to implement public health-necessitated lockdowns, China has begun to reopen its economy, though shifting lockdowns are anticipated until the disease can be fully managed. Portions of China’s economy are anticipated to continue growing while still being negatively affected by the global slowdown, especially with respect to international trade. China’s

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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service

forecast GDP per capita growth rate for FY 2020 is 0.4 percent, down from the FY 2019 rate of 5.7 percent. In Japan and South Korea, domestic spending is expected to fall less than other countries given more effectively contained outbreaks. South Korea is forecast to have -1.0 percent growth in per capita GDP in FY 2020, while the forecast for Japan is adjusted down about 6 percent compared with the February forecast from 0.7 percent to -5.3 percent. The decline in Japan’s economy is a result of falling exports to major trading partners.

While policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have varied across Latin America, countries more reliant on exports, such as Brazil, have seen their currencies depreciate from the start of the year. The Brazilian central bank has shown a continued willingness to cut benchmark interest rates and has more room available than other central banks. The continued slowdown and lower anticipated interest rates will cause further depreciation of the Brazilian real and other Latin American currencies. Argentina’s economy, which contracted in FY 2019, is expected to remain in a recession as growing concerns about its debt obligations have created a gap between its official and unofficial exchange rates.

Both Russia and the Middle East face lost revenue from the fall in oil markets which saw Brent crude oil spot prices fall $13 per barrel on average from March to April 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). While oil prices are expected to recuperate from recent lows, in a world of slow or no economic growth and abundant oil inventories, any increase in prices will be modest. Per capita GDP growth rate for FY 2020 is forecast to be -7.1 percent in Russia and -8.5 percent in the Middle East and Northern Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to face a decline in demand for its export products, which will cause FY 2020 per capita GDP to decline by 3.0 percent from the prior year.

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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service

Table 2--Macroeconomic variables affecting U.S. agricultural exports 1/Real exchange rate 2/2019Region/Country 3/WorldNorth AmericaUnited StatesCanadaMexicoEmerging marketsBrazilRussiaIndiaIndonesiaChinaEurope & Central AsiaEuro ZoneUkraineTurkeyAsia & OceaniaJapanSouth KoreaAustraliaOther Southeast Asia 4/Latin AmericaArgentinaOther South America 5/Middle East & North AfricaSub-Saharan Africa1/ Real values have a 2010 base year.2/ Local currency per U.S. dollar. A negative growth rate indicates a depreciation of the dollar. 3/ World real exchange rate is a U.S. agricultural exports-weighted index. 4/ Includes Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.5/ Includes Chile, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Uruguay.Source: Calculations and compilation by USDA, Economic Research Service using data and forecasts from Global Insight,IHS Markit, the International Monetary Fund, Oxford Economics.5.21.5--2.40.34.37.93.23.0-0.64.50.1-4.1-5.017.73.1-1.25.87.5-0.718.272.08.26.47.4202011.26.8--2.717.87.422.66.54.64.63.03.42.7-2.110.33.60.44.47.93.722.870.37.17.516.3Real GDP per capita growth rate20191.51.42020-5.5-7.3-7.1-8.8-9.6-2.6-6.9-7.1-2.1-1.70.4-8.4-8.5-8.1-7.0-1.6-5.3-1.0-7.3-4.8-6.8-7.8-6.3-8.5-3.020191.51.41.60.2-1.04.60.31.13.93.95.71.81.04.1-1.13.51.21.70.53.6-0.3-3.40.9-1.00.120201.50.71.10.2-0.34.41.01.64.64.05.21.50.84.01.53.30.71.60.73.70.2-2.51.40.00.4Share of WorldGDP100.027.724.12.01.624.12.21.83.21.215.824.915.40.11.234.05.72.01.61.74.60.81.14.22.0Share of U.S.Agricultural exportsPopulation100.06.54.30.51.745.02.81.917.83.518.99.34.50.61.155.21.70.70.34.05.80.61.86.513.3100.028.4--15.013.516.00.50.21.12.112.110.47.00.11.144.48.75.21.06.223.90.33.65.91.2Percent changePrevious forecast2016-18 average1.60.2-1.23.10.31.23.63.95.71.81.03.8-0.43.61.01.90.63.6-0.3-3.10.9-1.30.1 5

Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service