2015年11月3日
中国：资本品
证券研究报告
中国智能制造：相对机器人更看好激光；首次覆盖大族激光，强力买入 (摘要)
中国需向制造业价值链上游攀升…
首次覆盖大族激光，我们的首选股，强力买入 鉴于新兴市场竞争且发达国家制造业回流所带来的双1) 行业龙头，在市场份额增长方面拥有强劲的执行记
我们的评级和12个月目标价格 重压力，中国需向制造业价值链上游攀升以保持竞争录，CROCI位于第一四分位。
Mkt Target 力。本报告中，我们就政府关于促进制造业升级和现CompanyTickerCap Price Upside/Rating 代化的规划深入分析了智能制造领域可能带来的潜在2) 能够受益于短周期智能手机资本支出和锂电池焊接
($bn)(PCY)(downside)投资机会。
订单（占2016年收入的45%），从中捕捉增长机会。
China onshore automationHan's Laser002008.SZ 4.3 32.529%Buy*Inovance300124.SZ 5.7 58.327%Buy3) 强劲的研发实力可与外国光纤激光器供应商竞争，
Huagong Tech000988.SZ 2.5 16.1-9%Neutral …并发展先进制造
并将潜在进入增材制造和3D探测/激光雷达市场。
STEP Electric002527.SZ 2.2 19.0-18%NeutralSiasun Robot300024.SZ 8.0 55.0-29%Neutral我们预计2015-25年工业机器人子行业的年均复合增
Estun Automation002747.SZ 1.1 28.8-49%SellMedian 3.4-14%速将为8%，激光加工子行业的年均复合增速将为4) 估值：当前股价对应24.3倍/17.7倍的2016/17年
预期市盈率，在我们的覆盖范围内最具吸引力；潜在China offshore automation7%，数控系统子行业的年均复合增速将为5%。在我上行空间29%。
HollysysHOLI 1.2 24.615%Buy们的蓝天假设中，我们预计未来十年内，中国品牌将Haitian1882.HK 2.8 14.35%NeutralMedian 2.010% 会从主要的外国竞争者手中夺取多达25%的市场份额
因新能源和工厂自动化两个版块的持续增长而维* 位于强力买入名单。资料来源：Datastream、高盛全球投资研持买入汇川技术
究、高华证券研究 2016-17年资本开支总体情况不甚乐观
汇川技术的强劲增长势头有望在2016年继续。重申买智能制造 我们更看好智能手机更新换代及新能源汽车相关领域入评级，将目标价格上调34%，但由于上行空间较小通常指对工业机器人、数控机床和3D打印机的应用，的下游需求，并认为机器人本体企业面临低端供应过而移出强力买入名单。
这些设备通常与激光、感应器和CAD/CAM软件集成。 剩/盈利风险。我们的2015-17年盈利预测较市场预测低5-18% 对中小机器人企业持谨慎看法
我们首次覆盖埃斯顿并给予卖出评级，因其估值偏
*全文翻译随后提供。 高、面临盈利风险而存在49%的下行空间；我们首次覆盖华工科技并评为中性，因其CROCI持续降低。将
新时达评级上调至中性，继该股表现落后之后下行空间收窄。重申对新松机器人的中性评级。
杜茜 执业证书编号: S1420511100001
+86(10)6627-3147 jacqueline.du@ghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司 北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业 务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能 存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯 一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的 投资代表联系。
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投资研究
2015年11月3日 中国：资本品
Table of contents
Our thesis in six charts
3 Overview: China’s pressing need to upgrade and modernize its manufacturing industry 4 Valuation methodology: Using EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC framework 7 Intelligent manufacturing: A top priority for China’s “Manufacturing 2025” plan 9 1. How fast will industrial robots, CNC and fiber lasers grow over the next 10 years? 14 2. We expect share gains by local champions driven by R&D, market access and services 21 3. 2016-17E downstream capex not broadly encouraging, we favor smartphone & EV 27 Han’s: A proven laser leader to ride on China’s industrial upgrade; initiate at CL-Buy 42 Inovance: Increase TP/EPS, EV & FA as twin engines; off CL on less upside; reiterate Buy 44 Estun: Possible niche market winner but needs time; valuation stretched; initiate at Sell 46 Huagong Tech: Strong R&D background; diversified laser segments; fairly valued; Neutral 48 Siasun: Integration focused strategy helps to expand scale but limits cash return; Neutral 50 STEP: Upgrade to Neutral on less downside following underperformance 52 Appendix: Glossary 54 Disclosure Appendix
55
The prices in the report are based on the market close of October 30, 2015, unless stated otherwise.
Gao Hua Securities acknowledges the role of Tian Lu, CFA, Frank Shi and Diana Zhao of Goldman Sachs in the preparation of this product. With this report, Jacqueline Du assumes primary coverage of Inovance, Siasun, STEP, Haitian International and Hollysys from Tian Lu. Exhibit 1: The technology roadmap for intelligent equipment
Intelligent machine toolIndustrial robot3D printing201320152018202020252013201520182020202520132015201820202025Sensor?&key?componentKey?componentReal?time?craft?planning?systemIntelligent?controlResin,?plastic,?metal?printingIntelligentnumerical?control?&?HMI?(Human?Machine?Intelligent?operationCeramics?and?composite?Interaction)material?printingAMI?(Alone?Manufacturing?Island)?HMI?(Human?Machine?&?intelligentproduction?lineInteraction)Biomaterial?printing
Source: China Institute of Engineering Development Strategies
全球投资研究 2
2015年11月3日 Our thesis in six charts Exhibit 1: The pressing need for China to upgrade and modernize its manufacturing industry thUS$/pplhManufacturing productivity (value-added per worker)] 140US 120 100JapanGermany 80Korea 60 40China 20 -Source: Wind, CEIC, World Bank, International Labor Organization, Gao Hua Securities Research. Exhibit 4: Robots: Low-end oversupply risk in 2 yrsIR demand & aggregate capacity for major suppliers EUnitsthibitdith] 80,00072,117 70,000ChinaIndustrial Robots sales volumes66,651 61,600 STEPEstun 60,00056,000 Siasun 50,000STEPEfort 40,00036,560 EstunSiasunGSKEfort 30,000GSKYaskawaYaskawa 20,000YaskawaYaskawaFanucYaskawaFanucFanucFanucABB 10,000FanucABBABBABBABB -KUKAKUKAKUKAKUKAKUKA201320142015E2016E2017ESource: IFR, company data, Gao Hua Securities Research. 全球投资研究 Exhibit 2: Innovation and self-generated R&D needed to pave the way [E%hibidR&D expenditure as % of GDPih] 4.5 4.0Korea 3.5Japan 3.0Germany 2.5US 2.0China 1.5 1.0 0.5 -200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014Source: World Bank. Exhibit 5: Buy Han’s: Proven laser leader Han’s Laser revenue breakdown & GPM 100%No.1 in laser GFC hit on low marking & value-added Deviate from Penetrateinto Expect smartphone upgrade cycle & fast 90%engraving, 70% downstream core-business, Apple supply market sharedemandgrowing lithium but start to chain, laser First lithium battery & EV related introduce highmarkeing/weldingbattery weldingdemand80%power products/sapphire cuttingorder70%Others60%High power50%laser &44A%automation40@9BB89@@AB%equipment36%Small powerlaser &30%automationequipment20%Gross margin10%0 052006200720082009201020112012201320142015E2016E2017ESource: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research. 中国：资本品 Exhibit 3: Secular growth in robots/laser/CNC Illustration of intelligent equipment in smart factory Source: METI Journal, Gao Hua Securities Research. Exhibit 6: Robotics valuation stretched with earnings risk; laser winner underappreciated Bear case valuation implied upside/downside (2011-2014 median val ratio on 15E-17E CROCI)Bull case implied upside/downside (10yr blue sky valuation discounted to 2016E)GS base case 12mth TP implied upside/downside1200?`@ %0%-20%-40%-60%-80%Han's LaserInovance (Buy)Huagong TechSTEP ElectricSiasun RobotEstun(Buy*)(Neutral)(Neutral)(Neutral)Automation(Sell) Source: Gao Hua Securities Research. 3 2015年11月3日
中国：资本品
Overview: China’s pressing need to upgrade and modernize its manufacturing industry
全球投资研究 China is facing multiple challenges to its manufacturing sector. Other emerging markets are catching up and developed countries
are starting to bring their factories back home. Inside China the manufacturing sector is also suffering from slowing investment and export growth, rising labor costs and a society more sensitive to environmental issues.
Government’s “Manufacturing 2025” plan aims to modernize and upgrade the manufacturing sector. The government
announced in May the 10 areas of industry that it is targeting and recently released a detailed roadmap in September. These efforts should help manufacturing productivity growth and aid China in catching up with more developed countries.
We see a secular equipment demand shift towards intelligent manufacturing. A DM benchmark analysis shows an 8% CAGR in 2015-2025E for industrial robots, 7% for laser material processing and 5% for CNC systems:
? Industrial robots: Penetration into the electronics sector looks set to be the main driver for industrial robots, although there could
be near-term oversupply given that a lot of robot companies are ramping up capacity very quickly.
?
Lasers: We expect demand for laser applications, including laser cutting and welding, to rise given that they are stable, flexible and
relatively easy to integrate into an automated production line. The development of high-power fiber lasers in recent years has facilitated the integration of robots with laser technology.
? CNC system: A computerized numerical control (CNC) system automates machine tools so they can be operated by precisely
programmed commands, as opposed to being controlled manually. In China, CNC-controlled machine tools only account for 33% of total machine tools production, compared to 90% in Japan, but based on China’s government target by 2025E the numerical control rate will rise to 60%, which implies a CAGR of around 5% over the next 10 years.
We forecast market share gains for domestic champions given they have better access to the market and lower costs for servicing.
Local firms are able to offer more attractive pricing for whole customized automation solutions with engineers likely paid less than half of foreign competitors. Chinese firms have also been trying to create their own key components for making robots. We add a blue-sky scenario, which includes an import substitution opportunity that could contribute additional growth for domestic companies. By analyzing historical data, we see there was an up to 25pp share gain for machine tools during 2002-2009 and the same for construction machinery such as excavators during 2006-2011.
We initiate on Han’s (CL-Buy): China’s laser leader, 12-month TP of Rmb32.5, 29% potential upside: Han’s is the no. 1 laser equipment manufacturer in China, with a c.30%-40% market share in smaller power equipment thanks to its strong market access and its cost advantage. We like Han’s because: 1) 1st quartile CROCI industry leader with a solid global market share that has risen from 1.4% in 2006 to 7.7% in 2014; 2) poised to capture growth opportunities from the short cycle smartphone capex and lithium battery related orders (total 45% revenue in 2016E); 3) strong R&D focus in absolute $ amount to help
substitute high-power fiber lasers from foreign brands (expected from 2017E) and may tap into Additive Manufacturing & 3D detection/LIDAR afterwards.
We reiterate Inovance Buy: Off-CL, 12-month TP of Rmb58.3, 27% upside: We raise our earnings forecasts driven by Inovance’s penetration into passenger vehicles in 2016E-17E thanks to its strong track record to capture new growth opportunities and increasing Factory Automation segment. But we remove the stock from our Conviction List given less upside than Han’s Laser. Our 12-month target price is still based on 2016E EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC and a China automation sector cash return multiple of 4X, with a 5% premium.
4
2015年11月3日
全球投资研究 中国：资本品
We initiate on Estun at Sell: 12-month TP of Rmb28.8, 49% downside potential: Estun is the second-largest CNC system supplier domestically after GSK, and is the dominant supplier to metal-forming machine tools. However, we see rising R&D and production line additions increasing the company’s fixed cost base and posing near-term earnings risk. We forecast a downward outlook for machine tool sales. Our 12-month target price is based on 2016E EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC and a China automation sector cash return multiple of 4X, with a 60% premium by reference to robotic leader Siasun but with lower CROCI.
We initiate on Huagong Tech at Neutral: 12-month TP of Rmb16.1, 9% potential downside: Huagong is well known for its laser R&D strength and is the No. 2 laser player in China after Han’s, but with more diversified laser business lines; we see a mixed performance in coming years. Our 12-month target price is based on 2016E EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC and a China automation sector cash return multiple of 4X, with a 5% discount. The company is trading at a 2016E P/E of 66X vs. it historical average of 47X.
We reiterate Siasun at Neutral: 12-month TP of Rmb55.0, 29% downside: We believe Siasun will be able to grow its scale by leveraging the comparative advantage of lower engineering and service costs versus foreign competitors. But we are
cautious on CROCI expansion given that the company is likely increasingly shifting to larger-scale automation projects and expect rising account receivables/inventory days, while revenue contribution from service robots remains minor. Siasun’s last close implies a 2016E P/E of 109X vs. its historical average of 44X.
We upgrade STEP to Neutral: 12-month TP of Rmb19.0, 18% downside: While a series of recent M&A since July 2014 is likely to boost administration costs, and there could be further margin pressures amid a capex downturn, we are seeing rising revenues from the acquisitions. Our 12-month target price is now based on 2016E EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC and a China
automation sector cash return multiple of 4X, with a 10% discount, implying a 2016E P/E of 53X vs. the historical average of 31X and +1STD of 48X.
5
高华证券-机械：资本品：中国智能制造：相对机器人更看好激光;首次覆盖大族激光,强力买入 (摘要)
